Azerbaijan has confirmed that secret talks between Germany and Russia took place in Baku regarding the Ukraine conflict. The revelation comes as a prediction market puts the odds of a ceasefire agreement by the end of 2026 at 35.5%.
What the talks involved
According to Azerbaijani officials, the discussions were held in the capital Baku. The exact agenda and participants beyond the two countries remain undisclosed. The talks were described as secret, and no details about the content or any potential outcomes have been released.
The prediction market's odds
A prediction market tracking the likelihood of a ceasefire in Ukraine by December 31, 2026, currently shows a 35.5% probability. This figure reflects market participants' assessment of the chances for a formal end to hostilities within that timeframe. The market does not specify which parties would be involved in such an agreement.
What this means for the conflict
The confirmation of talks between Germany and Russia suggests ongoing diplomatic efforts outside the public eye. Germany, a key European power, has been a major supporter of Ukraine, while Russia has been the aggressor. The fact that these talks were held in Baku, a neutral venue, indicates a possible channel for backchannel communication. However, the low probability of a ceasefire by 2026 suggests that a breakthrough remains uncertain.
The conflict continues with no sign of de-escalation. The secret nature of the Baku talks leaves many questions unanswered about the willingness of either side to compromise.
