A U.S. official said Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah have agreed to a ceasefire in Lebanon, set to take effect at 4 p.m. GMT on Friday. But later reports of a deadly drone strike have thrown the agreement into question. The conflicting signals also rattled prediction markets: Eizenkot's lead on the Polymarket platform slid to 37%.
What the ceasefire announcement included
The official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the deal was brokered through intermediaries and would halt hostilities along the Israel-Lebanon border. No further details were provided about the terms or duration of the truce. The announcement came after weeks of escalating cross-border fire.
A drone strike that undercuts the deal
Hours after the ceasefire was made public, reports emerged of a drone strike that killed several people in southern Lebanon. The timing and location suggest the attack may have been carried out after the agreed start time, though no group immediately claimed responsibility. The incident has raised doubts about whether both sides are truly committed to the pause.
Polymarket odds shift on the news
On the prediction market Polymarket, traders had been betting heavily on Eizenkot — a figure widely seen as a front-runner in Israeli politics — to achieve a certain outcome. But as news of the ceasefire spread, his lead dropped from a higher level to 37%, reflecting sudden uncertainty. The market now shows traders are split on whether the ceasefire will hold or collapse.
What happens next
Both sides are expected to observe the 4 p.m. deadline, but the drone strike could trigger a new cycle of retaliation. The U.S. official did not comment on the attack, and no further statements have been issued by Israel or Hezbollah. The coming hours will test whether the ceasefire is real — or just another false start.
