China increased its nuclear warhead stockpile by 20 over the past year, bringing the total to 620 warheads, according to a new report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. The modest but steady addition comes as international disarmament efforts continue to stall and strategic competition between nuclear-armed states intensifies.
What the SIPRI data shows
The annual SIPRI yearbook, released this week, tracks global nuclear arsenals. China's total of 620 warheads places it well behind the United States and Russia, which together hold about 90% of the world's nuclear weapons, but positions Beijing as the third-largest nuclear power, ahead of France and the United Kingdom. The 20-warhead increase is the largest single-year addition for China in recent years, though the report notes China has been gradually modernizing and expanding its arsenal for more than a decade.
A shift in global nuclear posture
The report attributes the increase to a broader shift toward strategic instability. “The increase in China’s nuclear arsenal reflects a global trend where fading disarmament efforts and rising geopolitical tensions are prompting states to rely more heavily on nuclear weapons,” the report states. SIPRI researchers highlight that China, like other nuclear-armed states, is investing in new delivery systems and warhead designs, though Beijing maintains a policy of no first use.
What the numbers don’t capture
Raw warhead counts tell only part of the story. SIPRI estimates the total number of nuclear warheads worldwide stands at roughly 12,100, with about 9,585 in military stockpiles. Of those, around 3,880 are deployed on missiles or aircraft. China has historically kept its operational warheads separate from delivery systems, but the report notes a gradual integration of warheads with launchers, a step that could reduce reaction times. That shift, combined with the overall growth, points to a more assertive nuclear posture than in previous decades.
Disarmament momentum stalls
No new arms control agreements between the major nuclear powers have been signed since New START was extended in 2021. The United States and Russia remain locked in disputes over verification and missile defenses. China has repeatedly declined to join bilateral talks, arguing its arsenal is too small to warrant inclusion. SIPRI’s data underscores how that deadlock leaves the door open for gradual expansion—not just by China, but by India, Pakistan, and North Korea, all of which are also increasing their stocks.
What comes next
Beijing has not publicly commented on the SIPRI figures. The report's findings are expected to feature in upcoming disarmament debates at the United Nations General Assembly First Committee later this year. Whether China will engage in any new dialogue on limiting nuclear growth remains an open question—one that will likely determine whether the 620-warhead mark becomes a floor or a stepping stone.
