The Clarity Act's chances of passing in 2026 have faded as the Senate stalls on moving the bill forward. Prediction market Polymarket now shows only a 35.5% probability of the legislation becoming law, a sharp decline from earlier levels.
Senate delay stalls progress
The Senate has not scheduled a vote or debate on the Clarity Act, leaving the bill in limbo. Lawmakers have offered no public timeline for when they might take it up. The delay has been enough to shift sentiment among market participants, who had previously bet on a higher likelihood of passage.
Polymarket odds reflect uncertainty
Polymarket allows users to buy and sell shares in the outcome of political events. The current 35.5% YES price means traders see the Clarity Act's enactment as unlikely. The odds have dropped steadily in recent weeks as the Senate failed to act, though the platform does not reveal the identities of traders or the reasons behind their bets.
No clear path forward
Without a Senate vote, the Clarity Act cannot advance. The bill's supporters have not publicly commented on the delay, and no new hearings have been announced. The 2026 legislative calendar is crowded, and the window for action is narrowing.
The Clarity Act's future now depends on whether the Senate schedules a vote before the end of the session. No date has been set.
