The New York Liberty's shot at a comeback Wednesday night looks slim, at least according to the crypto-based prediction market tracking the game. The market currently gives the Liberty just a 17.5% chance of winning, as the Dallas Wings lead 65-53 in the third quarter. The odds reflect both the 12-point deficit and the absence of a key player — Paige Bueckers, a well-known college player, is not in the lineup.
The numbers on the market
The 17.5% figure comes from a cryptocurrency prediction platform that lets users bet on live game outcomes. The market opened before tip-off and has been adjusting in real time as the Wings built their lead. At the current score, the implied probability that the Liberty pull off a win is less than one in five. The platform hasn't disclosed total volume or the number of active contracts, but the odds are moving with the scoreboard.
Missing piece
Bueckers' absence is a notable factor. The college star wasn't expected to play in this WNBA matchup, but the prediction market prices in the full roster available to each team. Without her, the Liberty's offensive options are thinner. The Wings have been able to focus their defense on the remaining scorers, and it shows on the scoreboard.
The third quarter is still in progress. The prediction market will continuously update as the game clock ticks down. If the Liberty trim the lead, the win probability will rise — but with a 12-point gap and Bueckers on the bench, the market is betting against a New York rally.
