Polymarket odds now put former Israeli military chief Gadi Eizenkot at 51% in the race to become the next prime minister, with the prediction market's total volume hitting $28.9 million. The betting surge comes as New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani said the city cannot execute an International Criminal Court arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu, and urged the federal government to act before the U.N. General Assembly meets in September.
Prediction market points to Eizenkot
The decentralized betting platform shows Eizenkot as the clear frontrunner, though the market includes multiple candidates. The $28.9 million in wagers reflects growing uncertainty about Netanyahu's political future. No other candidate has crossed the 20% mark. The odds shift follows months of domestic turmoil in Israel, including judicial overhaul protests and the ongoing war in Gaza.
Mamdani's stance on the ICC warrant
Mayor Mamdani made clear that New York City lacks the legal authority to enforce an ICC arrest warrant against Netanyahu. The ICC issued the warrant in May, accusing Netanyahu and Hamas leaders of war crimes. Mamdani's statement effectively blocks any local effort to detain the Israeli leader if he visits the city. The mayor did not say whether he supports or opposes the warrant itself, only that the city's hands are tied.
Federal action urged before UN meeting
Mamdani called on the U.S. government to take a position ahead of the U.N. General Assembly in September. The assembly is expected to debate the ICC's actions and the broader Israel-Palestine conflict. Without federal guidance, Mamdani argued, cities like New York could face diplomatic and legal confusion. The mayor's office did not specify what kind of federal action he wants — only that it should come before the September gathering.
The combination of Eizenkot's rising odds and Mamdani's refusal to enforce the warrant creates a volatile backdrop for Netanyahu. He has not announced whether he will attend the U.N. meeting. If he does, the question of arrest remains unresolved at the city level, and the federal government has yet to respond to Mamdani's call.
