Enemy airstrikes struck bridges and a tunnel in Iran's Hormozgan province, as the US-Iran conflict continues. The attacks targeted infrastructure in the strategic coastal province, which borders the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments. No casualty figures or damage assessments have been released by Iranian authorities.
The strikes
The strikes hit multiple bridges and a tunnel in Hormozgan province. The province is home to Iran's main naval base and key oil export facilities. The attacks come amid heightened military activity between the US and Iran, though no group has claimed responsibility. Iranian state media confirmed the strikes but did not provide further details on the extent of the damage or whether there were any casualties.
War probability
A prediction market currently shows a 5.5% probability that the United States will officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026. The figure reflects market participants' assessment of the likelihood of a formal declaration, distinct from ongoing hostilities or proxy conflicts. The probability has fluctuated in recent weeks as tensions have escalated, but remains relatively low. The market does not account for other forms of military engagement short of a formal declaration.
The strikes on Hormozgan province's infrastructure could further raise the stakes in the region. The Strait of Hormuz is a vital waterway for global oil supplies, and any disruption there would have immediate economic consequences. The 5.5% probability, while modest, indicates that traders see a non-trivial chance of a formal war declaration within the next two years.
