Fuel shortages are spreading across Iran's Sistan province, a development local officials and residents tie directly to recent US military strikes. The disruptions come as a prediction market puts the odds of traffic returning to normal in the nearby Strait of Hormuz at just 9.5% by the end of August.
Why the shortages hit Sistan
Sistan province, in southeastern Iran, relies heavily on fuel supplies that move through the Strait of Hormuz. The US strikes, which targeted Iranian-linked assets in the region, have disrupted that supply chain. Drivers in the provincial capital Zahedan report long lines at gas stations, and some stations have shut down entirely. Local authorities have not issued an official statement, but residents describe the situation as the worst in years.
The shortages are not limited to gasoline. Diesel and cooking gas are also becoming scarce, affecting farmers and households. Without a steady supply, daily life is grinding to a halt in parts of the province.
Strait of Hormuz traffic remains uncertain
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments. About a fifth of the world's petroleum passes through it. The US military strikes have raised fears of Iranian retaliation, including potential harassment or closure of the strait. While no full closure has occurred, shipping traffic has been disrupted.
A prediction market that tracks the likelihood of events now shows a 9.5% probability that traffic through the strait will normalize by August 31. That figure suggests traders see a very low chance of a quick resolution. The market's assessment reflects ongoing tensions and the lack of clear diplomatic progress.
What the prediction market says
The market, which allows participants to bet on outcomes, has been monitoring the situation since the strikes began. Its current odds imply that a return to normal shipping patterns is unlikely within the next few weeks. The 9.5% probability is down from higher levels earlier in the crisis, indicating that the situation has worsened rather than improved.
Market participants are likely factoring in the possibility of further military action or Iranian countermeasures. The low probability also suggests that even if a temporary calm is achieved, lasting normalization will take longer than many hoped.
For now, residents of Sistan province are left to cope with the shortages. The Iranian government has not announced any rationing plans, but local officials are calling for emergency supplies. The next few weeks will be critical: if the strait remains disrupted, the shortages could spread to other provinces.
