Senator Lindsey Graham said Sunday that former President Donald Trump intends to seize the Strait of Hormuz if ongoing negotiations collapse. The statement, made during a televised interview, raises the stakes in one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints. Increased military tensions there could destabilize global oil markets and deepen geopolitical conflicts, analysts warn — though no official plan has been released.
The senator’s warning
Graham, a Republican from South Carolina and a close Trump ally, did not provide details on how a seizure would be carried out or what specific negotiations he was referencing. He framed the move as a last-resort option should diplomatic efforts fail. The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, sees about a fifth of the world’s oil supply transit through it daily.
What seizure would mean for oil markets
Controlling the strait effectively gives a military power the ability to choke off oil shipments from major producers like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates. Any disruption there would send crude prices soaring almost immediately. Past incidents — like the 2019 drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities — caused brief price spikes, but a full seizure could trigger a sustained supply crisis. The global economy, still recovering from post-pandemic inflation, would face renewed pressure at the pump and across supply chains.
Geopolitical fallout
Iran, which borders the strait and has long threatened to close it in response to sanctions, would almost certainly view a U.S. seizure as a provocation. The region is already a tinderbox after months of escalating tensions between Israel and Iran-backed groups. Other Gulf states, many of which host American military bases, would be caught between security pacts and their own economic interests. China and India, the strait’s biggest oil customers, would likely press for de-escalation through diplomatic channels. A military takeover by the U.S. would also test alliances in the United Nations Security Council.
Next steps
No timeline for negotiations or any potential military action was given by Graham. The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Whether Trump’s plan exists as a formal policy or remains a campaign trail talking point is unclear — but Graham’s public disclosure ensures it will become a central topic in the coming weeks.
