Houthi forces have issued new threats against Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure, raising concerns about potential supply disruptions. The probability that West Texas Intermediate crude will hit $100 a barrel by July 2026 has climbed to 40.7%, according to prediction market data.
What the Houthis Said
The Iran-backed group, which controls large parts of Yemen, has repeatedly targeted Saudi energy facilities in recent years. Their latest warning signals a possible escalation against the kingdom's oil production and export sites. Saudi Arabia is the world's largest crude exporter, and any significant attack could ripple through global markets.
Market Signals
The prediction market for WTI crude at $100 in July 2026 currently shows a 40.7% probability of YES. That's a roughly two-in-five chance that oil will reach triple digits within two years. The figure reflects growing unease about supply security, though the market has not yet priced in a full-blown disruption.
Supply Risks in Context
Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure has been a target before. In 2019, a strike on the Abqaiq processing facility temporarily knocked out half of the kingdom's production. The current threats come as OPEC+ already holds back millions of barrels per day from the market. Any additional loss of Saudi output would tighten supplies further, especially with global inventories already low.
The Houthi threat is not the only factor pushing oil prices higher. Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia, have kept crude above $70 for most of the year. But the prospect of a direct hit on Saudi facilities adds a new layer of risk.
The next major event for oil markets is the OPEC+ meeting in June, where members will decide on production quotas for the second half of 2025. For now, traders are watching whether the Houthis follow through on their threats. A confirmed attack could send prices sharply higher, while a de-escalation might cool the odds of $100 oil.
