The International Maritime Organization has formally condemned recent attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea, warning that the violence threatens to disrupt global supply chains. The IMO's statement comes as a prediction market shows a 23% probability that the Bab el-Mandeb Strait — a critical chokepoint for oil and container ships — will be closed by September 30.
What the IMO said
The UN agency, which sets global shipping standards, did not name any specific group or country responsible for the attacks. Instead, it called on all parties to respect international law and ensure the safety of seafarers and cargo. The IMO noted that any prolonged disruption in the Red Sea would have immediate consequences for fuel prices, food shipments, and the cost of manufactured goods moving between Asia and Europe.
The Bab el-Mandeb risk
Prediction market data shows traders currently see a 23% chance that the strait will be effectively closed by the end of September. The Bab el-Mandeb, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, is only about 20 miles wide at its narrowest point. Roughly 10% of global seaborne oil trade passes through it, along with a significant share of container traffic between Asia and Europe. A closure would force ships to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, adding weeks to transit times and millions of dollars in fuel costs.
Shipping lines have already begun adjusting routes. Some major carriers have suspended Red Sea transits, and insurance premiums for vessels in the region have spiked. The IMO's warning underscores that the attacks are not just a regional security issue but a threat to the entire maritime trading system. If the Bab el-Mandeb were to close, the alternative route around Africa would strain port capacity and raise shipping rates worldwide — costs that eventually hit consumers.
The agency did not announce any new measures or sanctions. It urged member states to coordinate through existing frameworks, including the IMO's Maritime Safety Committee.
What happens next
The IMO's Maritime Safety Committee is expected to take up the issue at its next meeting. No date has been set yet, but the agency said it will continue monitoring the situation. For now, the shipping industry is watching the Bab el-Mandeb closely — and the 23% probability on prediction markets suggests traders aren't ruling out a full closure.
