Iran has claimed responsibility for an attack on a US military base in Jordan that killed two American service members. The admission marks a rare direct acknowledgment from Tehran. It has also pushed the probability of US military action against a Gulf state to 57% as of July 22, according to a prediction market.
The attack
The strike hit a US base in Jordan. Two US service members were killed. Their names have not been released. The attack is one of the deadliest against US forces in the region in recent years.
Iran's claim
Iran said it was behind the attack. The claim came through state media. Tehran often denies involvement in such strikes, making this admission significant.
What the odds say
A prediction market that tracks the likelihood of US military action against a Gulf state jumped to 57% on July 22. That's up from lower levels before the attack. The market now sees a better-than-even chance of a US strike.
It's not clear which Gulf state the market refers to. The US has not announced any response. The odds suggest a military response is now more likely than not.
