Iran has condemned a US military strike on a desalination plant, calling it a war crime. The accusation comes as prediction markets give a final nuclear deal between the two countries just a 1.9% chance of being reached by August 13, 2026.
Tehran's war crime claim
Iranian officials said the strike on the desalination facility violated international law. They described the attack as a deliberate act of aggression against civilian infrastructure. The plant provides fresh water to a region already struggling with shortages, according to the government. No further details on casualties or damage were provided.
The US has not yet responded to the accusation. The strike is the latest in a series of military actions that have raised tensions between Washington and Tehran.
Nuclear deal probability
Separately, a prediction market tracking the likelihood of a final nuclear agreement shows the odds remain extremely low. As of the latest data, the probability of a deal by August 13, 2026, stands at just 1.9%. That figure reflects widespread skepticism that the two sides can bridge their differences before the deadline.
The market aggregates bets from traders who put money on outcomes. A 1.9% probability means the market sees a deal as a long shot. The date itself is not an official deadline but a reference point used by the platform.
The low odds come amid stalled negotiations. Iran has continued to expand its uranium enrichment program, while the US has maintained sanctions and military pressure. The desalination plant strike could further complicate any diplomatic path.
The August 13, 2026, date now looms as a marker of how far apart the two countries remain.
