Iran believes Jordan and the United Arab Emirates are unlikely to retaliate against strikes on US bases in the region, a stance that could hinder prospects for a US-Iran deal and ripple through regional stability and market confidence.
Why Iran's Assessment Matters
Tehran's reading of the situation is more than a tactical guess. If Iran is right that Amman and Abu Dhabi won't respond, it could embolden the Islamic Republic to press its advantage without fear of a wider regional conflict. That confidence, in turn, makes it harder for Washington to negotiate from a position of strength. The US has been trying to bring Iran to the table, but a Tehran that sees its neighbors as passive is less likely to make concessions.
The assessment also signals a shift in how Iran views its adversaries. Jordan and the UAE have historically been cautious in their dealings with Iran, but they've also cooperated with US military operations. If Iran now assumes they'll stay on the sidelines, it may be willing to take more risks in the region, knowing that the usual pressure points won't activate.
Regional Stability and Market Confidence
This isn't just a diplomatic headache. The perception that key Arab states won't push back against attacks on US bases undermines the sense of security that keeps markets calm. Investors watch for signs of escalation, and when they see a major player like Iran openly doubting the resolve of its neighbors, they start pricing in more volatility. Oil prices, in particular, tend to react to any hint that Gulf security is fraying.
Regional stability has been fragile for years, and this latest development adds another layer of uncertainty. If Jordan and the UAE are seen as unwilling to defend US interests, other countries in the region may also hesitate to host American forces or cooperate on intelligence. That could create a vacuum that Iran is all too happy to fill.
The timing couldn't be worse for diplomacy. Washington has been signaling a willingness to revive talks, but Iran's dismissive view of its neighbors makes a deal less likely. If Tehran believes it can act without consequence, it has little incentive to compromise on nuclear enrichment or missile programs. The US, for its part, may see Iran's stance as a sign that negotiations would be futile, pushing both sides further apart.
There's also the question of credibility. If Iran's assessment proves wrong and Jordan or the UAE do respond, the entire calculation changes. But if it's right, the US loses leverage not just with Iran, but with its own allies, who may wonder why they should stick their necks out for a partner that can't guarantee their safety.
The coming days will test Iran's assumption as the region watches for any response from Amman and Abu Dhabi. Whether they stay quiet or push back could determine the next phase of this standoff.
