Iran signed a memorandum of understanding on June 14 aimed at ending the ongoing conflict, according to sources familiar with the agreement. The MoU includes a provision to extend the current ceasefire for up to 60 days, giving both sides time to negotiate broader terms.
What the MoU covers
The document lays out a framework for discussions on three key issues: sanctions relief, freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, and the release of frozen assets. Each topic will be handled in separate talks, though the MoU ties them together under a single timeline. The ceasefire extension is meant to create a stable environment for those negotiations.
Neither side has publicly confirmed the details, but the text reportedly leaves room for both parties to adjust their positions during the 60-day window. If the talks break down, the ceasefire could collapse—but the MoU's structure is designed to prevent that.
Market watchers bet on oil relief
On Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform, traders are pricing in a 92% chance that former President Donald Trump will announce some form of oil relief in connection with the deal. The high probability reflects market expectations that any agreement involving Iran will include measures to stabilize global oil prices, particularly given the Strait of Hormuz's role in crude shipments.
The MoU itself does not mention oil relief directly, but analysts following the situation note that the Trump administration has long pushed for lower energy costs. The 92% figure suggests traders believe a separate announcement is imminent.
What happens next
Formal talks are expected to begin within days. The first session will likely focus on sanctions, with the U.S. and its allies seeking verifiable steps from Iran before any relief is granted. Shipping through Hormuz—a chokepoint for about a fifth of the world's oil—will be a second priority, followed by the frozen assets issue.
The 60-day window is tight. If the parties can't reach a framework by then, the ceasefire extension expires and the conflict could resume. For now, the MoU buys time—but not much.
