Negotiations over Iran's nuclear program are moving forward without a key player: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The decision to leave the IRGC out of the talks has raised serious questions about whether any agreement can actually hold.
The IRGC isn't just a military force. It controls vast swaths of Iran's economy, from oil and gas to construction and banking. Any deal that doesn't include the Guard risks being hollow — the IRGC could simply ignore or undermine commitments made by Iran's civilian government.
Why the IRGC matters
The Revolutionary Guard operates as a state within a state. It answers directly to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, not to the president or foreign ministry. That means even if diplomats reach an accord, the IRGC has the power to block implementation or continue activities that violate the deal's terms.
Past negotiations have tried to sideline the Guard, but that approach has a poor track record. The 2015 nuclear deal, for example, didn't directly address the IRGC's role in missile development or regional proxy forces. Critics argue that omission helped the Guard expand its influence while the civilian government was constrained by the deal's limits.
What's at stake in the current talks
The talks, which resumed in Vienna earlier this year, aim to restore limits on Iran's uranium enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief. But the IRGC's exclusion means the most powerful actor in Iran's security and economic apparatus isn't bound by any new restrictions.
That creates a paradox: the more the civilian government agrees to, the more the IRGC can step in to fill gaps. Some analysts point to the IRGC's control over border crossings and ports — if sanctions are lifted, the Guard could capture a large share of the new trade flows, enriching itself while the rest of the economy struggles.
There's also the question of the IRGC's designation as a foreign terrorist organization by the United States. That designation, imposed in 2019, makes it illegal for any U.S. person or company to deal with the Guard. The current talks have not addressed removing that label, which further complicates any potential deal.
Doubts from all sides
Iran's government insists it can deliver on commitments, but the IRGC's absence from the table undermines that claim. On the other side, U.S. officials have said they won't negotiate with the Guard directly, and European mediators have struggled to find a workaround.
The result is a growing sense that the talks may produce a piece of paper rather than a real change in behavior. Without the IRGC's buy-in, any agreement could be dead on arrival — or worse, give the Guard a free hand to operate without scrutiny.
No one is saying the talks are over. But the exclusion of the Revolutionary Guard has turned what was already a difficult negotiation into one that many see as fundamentally flawed. The next round is expected in the coming weeks, and the question of how — or whether — to bring the IRGC into the fold will likely dominate the agenda.
