Iran's foreign minister and parliament speaker have arrived in Doha for talks aimed at a US-Iran deal, according to reports. Prediction markets are pricing in a more than 92% chance of a ceasefire by May 31, with odds climbing to 96.4% for a May 27 deadline.
High-Profile Arrival in Doha
The Iranian delegation, led by the foreign minister and the parliament speaker, landed in the Qatari capital this week. Their presence signals a significant push to negotiate a ceasefire between Iran and the US, though details of the talks have not been publicly confirmed.
What the Prediction Markets Say
On prediction platforms, traders are betting heavily on a ceasefire within weeks. The probability of a truce by May 27 stands at 96.4%, while the odds for a May 31 deadline are slightly lower at 92.5%. The numbers suggest widespread confidence that a deal will be reached before the end of the month.
Neither side has commented publicly on the specifics of the negotiations. But the arrival of two top Iranian officials in Doha—a frequent venue for regional diplomacy—indicates that talks are serious.
The talks are expected to continue in the coming days, with the May 27 deadline looming as the most likely target for an announcement.
