Iran's Revolutionary Guards have quietly established covert cells inside Iraq designed to launch drone attacks against Gulf neighbors, according to intelligence assessments. The buildup is already ratcheting up regional tensions and threatens to destabilize Gulf security, with potential knock-on effects for global energy markets.
The covert network
The cells are reportedly tasked with planning and executing drone strikes on targets across the Gulf, though specific targets and timing remain unclear. The Revolutionary Guards, Iran's elite military force, have long operated proxies in Iraq, but this marks a more direct and structured effort to project power via unmanned aerial vehicles. The cells are believed to be small, compartmented units that can operate with limited oversight, making them difficult to detect before an attack.
Why this escalates the Gulf crisis
For years, Gulf states have worried about Iran's growing drone arsenal and its willingness to use proxies. But a dedicated network inside Iraq represents a new phase. It shortens the distance to potential targets and gives Tehran a launchpad that is harder to intercept. The move comes as diplomatic efforts to contain Iran's regional influence have stalled, and as the U.S. military presence in the region has shifted in recent years.
Gulf security, already strained by the war in Yemen and periodic attacks on oil infrastructure, now faces a more immediate threat. The cells could be used to strike at critical energy facilities, desalination plants, or civilian airports, all of which have been hit by drones in past attacks linked to Iran-backed groups.
Global energy markets, still rattled by the war in Ukraine and OPEC+ production decisions, are now pricing in a new risk premium from the Gulf. If the cells become operational and launch a successful strike, oil prices could spike sharply. The Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's oil passes, sits just a few hundred miles from Iraq's southern border. Any disruption there would ripple through the global economy.
The facts are still emerging, and no attack has been publicly attributed to the new cells yet. But the intelligence community is watching closely, and Gulf states are quietly beefing up their air defenses.
What remains unclear is how Gulf governments will respond. A direct military retaliation could trigger a wider conflict, while a diplomatic response may not deter the Revolutionary Guards. For now, the cells exist — and the region is bracing for what comes next.
