The Kremlin has made clear it will not return the border areas of Sumy and Kharkiv in any future peace agreement. The statement comes as prediction markets show just a 7.5% chance that Russian forces will capture the city of Sloviansk by the end of the year.
Kremlin's Red Line on Border Regions
Russian officials have drawn a firm line on the northeastern border territories. In a statement that leaves little room for negotiation, the Kremlin said those areas are off the table in any peace deal. The regions have been a flashpoint since the start of the war, with Ukrainian forces maintaining control over parts of Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts despite repeated Russian attempts to push deeper.
The announcement effectively closes the door on any diplomatic solution that would involve swapping or returning those specific territories. It also signals that Moscow sees those areas as non-negotiable, even if it means prolonging the conflict.
Sloviansk: A Low-Probability Target
Meanwhile, betting markets are not pricing in a Russian capture of Sloviansk anytime soon. According to data from a prediction market, the probability that Russia will take the city by December 31 stands at just 7.5%. Sloviansk, a key city in the Donetsk region, has been under Ukrainian control since 2014. Russian forces have made incremental gains in the east but have not breached the city's defenses.
The low probability suggests traders see a Russian breakthrough there as unlikely in the near term, despite the Kremlin's broader refusal to give up claims on the border areas. The two facts together paint a picture of a conflict where territorial concessions are off the table, but major new gains are not expected soon.
What Comes Next
The Kremlin's statement sets a clear baseline for any future talks. But with the prediction market showing little confidence in a Russian capture of Sloviansk, the immediate outlook remains one of grinding attrition rather than dramatic shifts. The next update from the prediction market will offer fresh data on how traders view the odds.
