Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has won Brazil's runoff election, securing a fourth term as the country's president. The result came after a first round in which Senator Flavio Bolsonaro took the lead, with prediction markets assigning him better than 80% odds of victory. Lula's comeback in the runoff reverses that momentum and returns him to the office he held in earlier terms.
How the runoff overturned the first round
Flavio Bolsonaro entered the runoff with the edge. He had led the first round and had collected the backing of other candidates who dropped out of the race. Lula, by contrast, had to consolidate support in the weeks between rounds. The runoff produced a different outcome from the first round, with Lula winning the presidency.
The gap between prediction markets and the result is notable. Markets gave Flavio Bolsonaro more than 80% odds, a level of confidence that the runoff vote didn't bear out. That doesn't make the markets a polling error; it makes them a signal that the runoff's final days moved in Lula's direction.
Fourth term for Lula
Lula's return to the presidency marks his fourth term in the role. He has held the office before, and the runoff result puts him back in the job. The win is a personal one for the candidate, but it also means the coalition that backed him in the runoff will expect to be part of the government.
That coalition now includes voters who supported other candidates in the first round. Those endorsements, which flowed to Flavio Bolsonaro during the first round, didn't hold in the runoff. Where they went instead is the open question that the runoff result answers only in part.
The runoff map and what comes next
The runoff is the final round in Brazil's two-stage presidential system. Lula's win means he'll take office for the new term, and the first test of his win will be how the runoff coalition holds together when he starts naming a government. Flavio Bolsonaro, who led the first round and held the market's confidence, will return to the Senate role he already holds unless he contests the result.
No date has been set yet for the transition or the inauguration based on the facts available. The immediate next step is the formal certification of the runoff result, after which Lula is due to take office for his fourth term.
