New video footage has emerged showing secondary explosions at a Kurdish military base in Sulaymaniyah, following an Iranian strike. The footage, which surfaced online, adds to concerns about the scale of the attack. Meanwhile, a prediction market now gives a 10.5% probability that the Iranian regime will fall by the end of 2026.
What the footage reveals
The clip, verified by multiple sources, captures multiple blasts at the base after the initial Iranian strike. It's unclear what caused the secondary explosions — they could be from munitions stored on site or from follow-up strikes. The base is used by Kurdish forces in northern Iraq, an area that has seen repeated Iranian missile and drone attacks over the past year. Iran says it targets separatist groups operating from Iraqi Kurdistan. The new footage doesn't show casualties, but the explosions appear significant.
The prediction market number
On Polymarket, a popular prediction platform, traders have placed bets on the likelihood of the Iranian regime collapsing by December 31, 2026. The current probability sits at 10.5%, up from lower levels earlier this year. That's a specific, data-driven number — not a pundit's guess. Prediction markets aggregate the opinions of thousands of participants who put real money on outcomes. A 10.5% chance is low, but it's not negligible. For context, similar markets have tracked the probability of other geopolitical events, though each situation is unique.
The combination of fresh battlefield footage and a rising prediction market probability points to heightened uncertainty around Iran's stability. The strike on the Kurdish base is just one incident in a broader pattern of Iranian military action. But the secondary explosions suggest the attack may have been more destructive than initially reported. The prediction market number reflects a growing sense among some traders that internal pressures — economic, political, or military — could push the regime toward collapse within a few years.
Neither the Kurdish authorities nor Iranian officials have commented on the new footage. The prediction market will continue to update as new information emerges. For now, the 10.5% figure stands as a cold, quantitative marker of a volatile situation.
