President Donald Trump said the United States and Iran have signed a preliminary agreement to end the Gulf war. The announcement, made without a formal signing ceremony or supporting documents, sent oil prices tumbling to their lowest level in three months and fueled a broad rally in global stocks and bonds.
Oil prices tumble
Crude oil futures slid sharply after Trump's statement, reaching a three-month low. The drop reflects market expectations that a potential end to the conflict could ease supply disruptions and reduce geopolitical risk premiums that had been baked into prices. Traders moved quickly to adjust positions, with the selloff accelerating through the session.
Global markets rally
Stock markets around the world rose, with major indices posting gains. Bond prices also climbed, pushing yields lower, as investors interpreted the news as a sign of reduced uncertainty. The simultaneous rise in both stocks and bonds is unusual and suggests a broad risk-on shift tied directly to the diplomatic breakthrough.
Betting markets shift
On the prediction platform Polymarket, contracts tied to the collapse of Iran saw their 'Yes' probability plummet to 9.5%. That's a sharp reversal from earlier levels, indicating that traders on the platform now see a much lower chance of the deal falling apart. The rapid change mirrors the real-world market reaction.
The details of the preliminary agreement remain sparse. No official text has been released, and neither the White House nor Iran's government has provided a timeline for next steps. Investors are watching for any confirmation from Tehran or further announcements from Washington that could solidify or undermine the reported deal.
