Pakistani officials are increasingly concerned that former President Donald Trump, if he returns to office, could order a US ground offensive in Iran. The fears, circulating within Islamabad's security establishment, reflect a broader unease about the potential for a new conflict on Pakistan's western border.
Why the concern now
Trump's first term saw the US kill Iranian General Qasem Soleimani in a drone strike and withdraw from the nuclear deal. His campaign rhetoric has included threats of military action against Iran. Pakistani officials worry that a second Trump term could bring a more direct, ground-based intervention, destabilizing an already volatile region.
Pakistan's stake
Pakistan shares a long border with Iran. A US ground offensive would likely send refugees streaming across the frontier and could embolden militant groups operating in the area. Islamabad has historically tried to balance ties with both Washington and Tehran, and a new conflict would strain that balancing act. Officials fear the economic and security fallout could be severe.
What officials are saying
While no public statements have been made, multiple Pakistani security sources have privately voiced these concerns in recent weeks. They point to Trump's unpredictability and his administration's past willingness to use military force. The fear is not hypothetical — it is shaping contingency planning within Pakistan's defense and foreign policy circles.
The broader picture
US-Iran tensions remain high, with Iran's nuclear program advancing and proxy conflicts simmering across the Middle East. A ground offensive would be a major escalation, and Pakistan would be caught in the middle. The question now is whether Trump would actually order such an operation — and how Pakistan would respond if he did.
