A new poll suggests that Israel's Likud party would struggle to clear the 20-seat threshold in the Knesset if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is not at the top of its ticket. The survey, which has not been publicly attributed to a specific polling firm, indicates the party's electoral fortunes are tightly tied to its longtime leader.
What the poll shows
According to the findings, Likud would secure fewer than 20 seats in the 120-member parliament without Netanyahu leading the list. That would represent a significant drop from the party's current 32 seats, which it won in the November 2022 election under Netanyahu's leadership. The poll did not specify who might replace him or how other parties would perform in such a scenario.
Netanyahu's role as a political anchor
Netanyahu has led Likud for most of the past three decades and is Israel's longest-serving prime minister. His leadership has been a central factor in the party's electoral dominance, even as he faces an ongoing corruption trial and political turbulence. The poll underscores the degree to which Likud's identity is fused with Netanyahu himself, making a future without him a risky proposition for the party's base.
If the poll is accurate, it could reshape the coalitions and alliances that define the Knesset. A Likud weakened below 20 seats would likely lose its position as the largest party, opening the door for alternative blocs — such as the center-left Yesh Atid or the right-wing Religious Zionism — to take the lead. It might also force Likud to consider a leadership transition, though no internal challenge has emerged so far.
The timing of the poll is notable. Netanyahu's trial is set to resume in the coming weeks, and his coalition has faced internal strains over judicial overhaul legislation and security policy. Any further erosion of public support could accelerate calls within Likud for a change at the top.
An unresolved question
Whether the party can hold together without Netanyahu remains an open question. The poll does not name a preferred successor, and no clear alternative has stepped forward. With no election currently scheduled, the pressure on Likud's leadership will likely build quietly — until it doesn't.
