Combined trading volume on prediction platforms Polymarket and Kalshi for the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner has topped $2.8 billion. France now holds the top spot on Polymarket with an 18% implied probability, having overtaken Spain as the market favorite.
France Overtakes Spain as Favorite
Shares for France on Polymarket are trading at 18.5 cents, reflecting the 18% chance bettors are giving the team. The shift from Spain to France happened recently, though the exact timing isn't clear from available data. The 2026 World Cup group stage is already underway, meaning actual match results will start reshaping those odds.
Volume Tops $2.8 Billion
The combined figure across Polymarket and Kalshi makes this one of the largest prediction‑market events tied to a single sporting competition. Both platforms have seen heavy activity since the tournament began, with traders buying and selling shares in who will lift the trophy next month. Neither platform has disclosed fee revenue or the number of unique traders involved.
Polymarket and Kalshi operate as regulated prediction markets in the U.S., allowing users to bet on event outcomes using real money. The World Cup market is the highest‑volume single event on both sites currently.
With the group stage still being played, the odds will almost certainly change as teams advance or get eliminated. The next round of matches could shift France's implied probability — or push another contender past the 18% mark.
