Polymarket, the crypto-based prediction market, is pricing in an 88.75% probability that Ukraine's Armed Forces chief Oleksandr Syrskyi will be removed from his post before December 31. The bettors' conviction comes as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reportedly considers replacing Syrskyi with Major General Mykhailo Drapaty. But sources familiar with the discussions disagree on whether a final decision has been made and when any change might happen.
The betting market's signal
Polymarket's odds have climbed steadily over the past week, now reflecting near-certainty among traders that Syrskyi's tenure as commander-in-chief won't survive the calendar year. The contract, simply titled “Syrskyi removed as AFU Commander-in-Chief by 12/31/2025,” has attracted significant volume. On the platform, each share costs about 88.75 cents and pays out $1 if the event occurs. That makes the implied probability the highest since the contract opened.
Prediction markets have a mixed track record on military personnel changes, but Polymarket's numbers have sometimes tracked real-world developments closely. The surge suggests a growing belief in Kyiv that a leadership shakeup is imminent.
Zelensky's reported choice
According to multiple people familiar with the discussions, President Zelensky has been weighing a replacement for Syrskyi for weeks. The name that keeps surfacing is Major General Mykhailo Drapaty, a combat commander who has led troops in the eastern front. Drapaty, a decorated officer, is seen by some in the administration as a fresh pair of eyes for a war that has dragged into its third year.
What isn't clear is whether Zelensky has already signed off on the move. One source close to the presidential office told reporters that the decision is “essentially made” and that an announcement could come within days. Another source, inside the Defense Ministry, insisted the matter remains under discussion and that no final call has been taken.
Uncertainty over timing
The conflicting accounts extend to the timeline. The same source who said the decision is locked in predicted a change before the end of November. The other source said any reshuffle would likely wait until after the new year, arguing that a mid-winter command change would disrupt operational planning. Syrskyi himself has not publicly addressed the speculation, and the Defense Ministry declined to comment.
Polymarket's odds — 88.75% — sit somewhere in the middle. They imply conviction that Syrskyi will be out by December 31, but not that the decision has been formally made. The market will be watching for any official confirmation from the presidential office.
No official confirmation has come from Kyiv, and the competing accounts leave the timeline for any change unclear. For now, the bettors are betting on a new commander before the ball drops — but the sources in the room aren't so sure.
