The prediction market Polymarket continues to show a 10.5% probability of regime change in Iran by the end of the year, even as Iranian state television broadcast a statement attributed to the country's supreme leader warning the United States of 'unforgettable lessons.' The warning came amid a fresh round of accusations from both sides that the other had violated a recent Memorandum of Understanding, with each declaring the agreement effectively dead.
Market unmoved by headlines
Polymarket's 'Iran regime change' contract has held at 10.5% for several days, despite a flurry of escalation headlines. The contract pays out if the current Iranian government falls or is replaced before January 1. Traders have not shifted their bets significantly, suggesting they see the latest rhetoric as noise rather than a genuine shift in the political landscape.
Supreme leader's warning
Iranian state TV read a statement attributed to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei that warned the US would face 'unforgettable lessons' if it continued its current course. The statement did not specify what actions might trigger such a response, but it came after weeks of heightened tensions over nuclear talks and regional military moves. The US has not publicly responded to the warning.
MoU declared 'over' by both sides
The recent Memorandum of Understanding, which had been seen as a fragile step toward de-escalation, now appears to be in tatters. Iranian officials accused the US of breaching the agreement, while US officials leveled the same charge at Tehran. Both sides have used the word 'over' to describe the MoU's status. No details on which specific provisions were allegedly violated have been released by either government.
The collapse of the MoU leaves no formal framework for talks. The US has not proposed a new round of negotiations, and Iran has not signaled willingness to return to the table under the current conditions. The Polymarket odds may shift if either side takes a concrete military or diplomatic step, but for now the market is waiting.
