The odds of former President Donald Trump being out of the race by July 31 dropped to 0.35% on the prediction market Polymarket, following a ruling in a key Minnesota case where a judge appointed by Trump himself ruled against him, according to reports.
The Minnesota setback
The judge, nominated by Trump during his presidency, issued a decision that went against the former president in a case described as key. Specific details of the case remain under seal, but the outcome has immediate implications for Trump's political calendar. The ruling reportedly challenges a central argument Trump's legal team had made, potentially reshaping the legal landscape surrounding his candidacy.
Market reaction
Polymarket traders are betting heavily against Trump being "out" — meaning either disqualified, withdrawn, or otherwise unable to run — by the July 31 deadline. The 0.35% figure represents a sharp decline from previous levels, indicating that the market views the Minnesota ruling as a significant hurdle. The odds are tied to a contract that pays out if Trump is no longer a candidate or is otherwise removed from the political picture by that date.
What the ruling changes
The case in Minnesota is one of several legal battles Trump faces across the country. The ruling from a Trump-nominated judge adds a layer of political intrigue, as it suggests even judges appointed by the former president are not ruling in his favor. The decision could set a precedent for other cases, particularly those challenging Trump's eligibility under the 14th Amendment's insurrection clause, though the Minnesota case's specifics are not yet public.
Next steps
The case is expected to be appealed, with Trump's legal team likely to seek a stay or a reversal. The appellate process could take weeks, with a hearing date yet to be set. The prediction market odds will continue to shift as new rulings and appeals emerge, offering a real-time gauge of how traders view Trump's legal prospects.
