Polymarket bettors have lowered the probability of a US-Iran ceasefire lasting at least 14 consecutive days by 10 percentage points. The shift comes as traders on the Myriad platform now expect formal peace talks to begin no earlier than next month, reflecting growing skepticism about near-term diplomatic progress.
What the betting data shows
On Polymarket, the contract asking whether the US and Iran will observe a 14-day ceasefire has seen its odds fall from a previous level to a new lower figure. The exact starting point wasn't disclosed, but the 10% drop signals a significant change in trader sentiment. Meanwhile, Myriad users are pricing in a delay: they believe negotiations won't start until at least the next calendar month.
Why the outlook shifted
The decline in ceasefire odds follows recent public statements from both sides. Iranian officials have reiterated demands for sanctions relief before any pause in hostilities, while US representatives have insisted on verifiable steps to halt nuclear enrichment. No formal meeting has been scheduled, and the gap between positions appears to have widened in recent days.
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Myriad aggregate the bets of thousands of participants, offering a real-time gauge of expectations. The drop in ceasefire probability suggests that traders see a lower chance of a breakthrough in the immediate term.
What happens next
Both platforms will continue to update their contracts as new information emerges. The next concrete milestone is the potential scheduling of talks, which Myriad users now expect to occur next month at the earliest. Until then, the odds of a 14-day ceasefire are likely to remain volatile, reacting to any diplomatic signals or military developments.
