Polymarket bettors now put the odds that Strait of Hormuz traffic won't return to normal by July 31 at 99%. The prediction market's near-certain 'No' outcome reflects the eighth straight day of U.S. airstrikes targeting IRGC-linked coastal surveillance, air defenses, and maritime sites. The question of whether the escalating military campaign will disrupt the vital waterway remains open.
Polymarket odds near certainty
The 'No' contract on Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction platform, has climbed steadily over the past week. As of Tuesday, it sat at 99 cents — meaning traders see a 99% probability that normal shipping and oil transit through the strait won't resume by the end of the month. The 'Yes' side, which would pay out if traffic normalizes, has collapsed to just 1 cent. Polymarket doesn't disclose who's behind the bets, but the shift suggests a broad consensus that the standoff will persist.
Eighth day of US airstrikes
U.S. forces have now carried out airstrikes for eight consecutive days, hitting targets linked to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The strikes have focused on coastal surveillance systems, air defense batteries, and maritime installations — all infrastructure that could be used to monitor or threaten shipping in the strait. The Pentagon has not said how long the campaign will last, but the daily tempo shows no sign of slowing.
Strait of Hormuz in focus
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow chokepoint between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. About a fifth of the world's oil passes through it. Any disruption — from mines, missile attacks, or naval confrontations — could send energy prices spiking. So far, commercial traffic has continued, but the risk is rising. The U.S. airstrikes are designed to degrade Iran's ability to threaten the strait, but they also raise the chance of a miscalculation that could close it.
Attention now turns to whether the military pressure will force a change in Tehran's posture — or push the region closer to a broader conflict. The July 31 deadline on Polymarket is arbitrary, but it's the one the market is watching. With odds at 99%, traders are betting the strait won't be back to normal by then. What happens after that is anyone's guess.
