California Governor Gavin Newsom is now the betting favorite over former President Donald Trump in the 2028 presidential race, according to Polymarket odds updated on June 15, 2026. The prediction market data shows Newsom leading Trump, whose odds have slipped amid renewed questions about his fitness for office.
What the betting odds show
Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform, allows users to bet on political outcomes. As of June 15, Newsom's odds had overtaken Trump's, marking a shift from earlier in the year when Trump held a narrow lead. The exact percentages are not specified in the available data, but the trend is clear: Trump's position has weakened.
Why Trump's odds dropped
The decline in Trump's odds comes as questions about his fitness for office have resurfaced. While the facts do not detail the specific nature of these questions, they have been enough to move the betting market. Trump has not yet formally announced a 2028 campaign, but he remains a dominant figure in Republican politics. The renewed scrutiny appears to be weighing on his perceived chances.
Newsom's position
Newsom, a Democrat, has been widely speculated as a potential presidential candidate. His lead in the Polymarket odds suggests that bettors see him as a strong contender, though he has not declared a run. The California governor has been increasingly visible on the national stage, but the facts do not indicate any specific actions tied to this polling shift.
Political betting markets are volatile and can change quickly with new developments. Whether Trump's odds will continue to slide or recover will depend on how he addresses the renewed scrutiny. No major announcements or events have been scheduled that directly relate to these odds, but the market will be watching for any shifts in the political landscape.
