Prediction market Polymarket is currently pricing United Russia at 56.5% to lead seat gains in the 2026 State Duma elections, while Hungary's bid to find a presidential candidate has hit a snag after a chess grandmaster turned down the offer.
Polymarket's Duma Forecast
Data from the decentralized prediction platform shows United Russia, the ruling party, with a clear edge in the race for the next Duma. The 56.5% figure reflects the market's expectation that the party will secure the largest share of seats when Russians vote in 2026. No other party currently registers above 15% in the same market, though the odds can shift as the election approaches.
Polymarket's numbers are based on real-money bets placed by users, making them a rough gauge of sentiment rather than a formal poll. The platform has drawn attention for its accuracy in past elections, including the 2020 U.S. presidential race, though it's not without controversy. Critics point out that prediction markets can be manipulated by large bets, but supporters argue they often outshine traditional polling.
Hungary's Presidential Vacancy
Across the border, Hungary's political landscape has a different kind of uncertainty. A report from local media indicates that the country is now without a presidential candidate after a prominent chess legend declined to run. The name of the grandmaster wasn't disclosed, but the decision leaves Hungary's ruling Fidesz party scrambling to find a nominee for the largely ceremonial post.
The presidency in Hungary is currently vacant following the resignation of Katalin Novák in February 2024 amid a pardon scandal. Since then, the government has struggled to settle on a replacement. The chess legend's refusal adds another twist to a search that has already seen several high-profile figures decline or withdraw.
Parliament is expected to vote on a new president later this year, but no date has been set. The delay raises questions about the government's ability to unify behind a candidate, especially as the European Union continues to withhold billions in funds over rule-of-law concerns.
Neither the Hungarian government nor the chess grandmaster have commented publicly on the report.
