Reform UK’s recent electoral gains are rattling Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s inner circle and forcing a rethink of Labour’s approach to the European Union. The right-wing party, which siphoned votes from Labour in last week’s contests, now threatens to become a permanent headache for Starmer as he tries to hold together his coalition and reset post-Brexit relations.
The electoral threat
Reform UK picked up seats in a series of council by-elections, cutting into Labour majorities that once seemed safe. The losses were small in number but big in message: working-class voters who backed Labour for decades are drifting toward the eurosceptic party. Labour strategists privately admit they underestimated the pull of Reform’s message on immigration and national sovereignty.
The party’s gains came mainly in Leave-voting areas where Labour had hoped to rebuild trust after Brexit. Instead, Reform UK is filling the gap left by the Conservatives’ collapse, offering a harder line on EU migration and a rejection of any closer alignment with Brussels.
Pressure on Starmer’s leadership
Starmer’s authority is taking a hit. Labour MPs in seats where Reform UK is strong are openly questioning whether the party’s current EU policy is costing them votes. Some are urging Starmer to adopt a more cautious tone on rejoining the single market or extending youth mobility schemes. Others worry that pandering to the centrist pro-European wing will push traditional Labour voters further into Reform’s arms.
The prime minister has so far stuck to his line that “there is no case for rejoining the EU or the single market.” But that position looks increasingly fragile as Reform UK paints Labour as secretly plotting a return to Brussels. The pressure is not just electoral; it’s personal. Starmer’s own majority could be vulnerable if Reform UK fields a strong candidate in his constituency at the next general election.
EU strategy dilemma
Labour’s EU policy is caught between two fires. On one side, business groups and pro-European MPs want closer ties to boost trade and security. On the other, Reform UK is mobilizing voters who fear any loss of British sovereignty. Starmer’s team had hoped to quietly pursue a “reset” without making waves. But Reform’s success makes that harder.
The government is now weighing whether to accelerate talks on a veterinary agreement and mutual recognition of professional qualifications — steps that would be seen as a win for closer ties. But any visible progress could be used by Reform UK as evidence that Labour is betraying Brexit. The party’s latest campaign leaflets feature a photo of Starmer shaking hands with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen under the tagline: “They’re already doing it.”
Labour’s official line remains that the EU relationship should be “reset” without rejoining. But Reform UK’s gains are forcing the party to decide just how far that reset goes — and whether it’s worth the political cost.
The next test will come in the spring, when a batch of local elections will show whether Reform UK’s momentum is a blip or a trend. For Starmer, the question is not just about seats. It’s about whether he can hold his party together on Europe long enough to reach the next general election.
