Rep. Al Green has filed impeachment articles against President Trump, injecting a fresh political fight into the 2026 midterm season. The filing lands as prediction-market traders put the odds of Trump leaving office before 2027 at just 6.5%.
The filing's route through the House
Green, a Texas Democrat, submitted the articles to the House, where they'll sit until leadership decides what to do. They could be referred to the Judiciary Committee, placed on the calendar for a vote, or quietly shelved. No timeline has been set.
This isn't a spur-of-the-moment decision. Green has been vocal about his opposition to Trump, though the exact language of these articles hasn't been released. The filing itself is the public action, and it forces the House to acknowledge the question of Trump's conduct.
What a 6.5% probability means
A prediction market, where traders bet real money on political outcomes, currently shows a 6.5% chance that Trump is out of office before January 2027. That's a low number, but it's not zero. The market's view suggests that despite the impeachment filing, Trump's position is stable.
Still, that figure can shift quickly. Impeachment proceedings in the House have a way of changing political calculations, especially when a midterm election looms. The market is just a snapshot, not a forecast.
The midterm backdrop
The 2026 midterms are the reason this filing matters now. Every move in Washington becomes campaign fodder. Democrats will use it to rally their base; Republicans will frame it as a distraction.
Green's action gives both sides a concrete event to respond to. For voters, it's a reminder that Trump remains a central figure in national politics, even after his term. The House now controls what happens next.
