Robert F. Kennedy Jr. holds a 49% share in the Polymarket betting market for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, a figure that has remained flat. Meanwhile, a new Economist/YouGov survey shows Donald Trump's approval rating among Americans aged 65 and older has fallen to 39% — his weakest showing among seniors in nearly three months. Both data points emerge as the 2026 midterm elections approach.
Polymarket's 2028 GOP odds
On the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, bettors have placed Kennedy at the top of the field for the 2028 GOP nominee, with a 49% probability. The odds have not moved recently, indicating a stable view among traders. Kennedy, who ran as an independent in the 2024 presidential race, has not formally declared a 2028 run, but the market reflects speculation about his potential candidacy within the Republican Party. Other potential contenders — such as Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley — hold lower shares, though exact figures were not part of the data. Kennedy's lead suggests bettors see a real opening for him in the GOP primary.
Trump's senior approval slips
The Economist/YouGov poll, conducted in recent days, found that only 39% of seniors approve of the job Trump is doing. That's his lowest mark among voters 65 and older in the past three months. The drop comes as the former president remains a dominant figure in Republican politics, but the survey suggests some erosion among a key voting bloc that has historically supported him. The poll also measured Trump's overall approval, but the senior-specific number stands out because older Americans typically vote at high rates in midterm elections.
Midterm context
The survey was released as the 2026 midterm elections draw closer. While the poll focuses on Trump's approval, it also provides a snapshot of voter sentiment ahead of the contests that will determine control of Congress. The 65+ demographic is crucial for both parties — they turn out reliably, and any shift in their views can swing tight races. Kennedy's strong showing in the betting market, combined with Trump's dip among seniors, paints a picture of a Republican landscape in flux. The former president still commands a loyal base, but these numbers hint at potential vulnerabilities.
The next major test of voter sentiment will come in the 2026 midterms, where candidates will be watching these numbers closely.
