Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi have discussed the possibility of President Xi Jinping traveling to the United States, according to a readout of their recent call. The conversation comes as prediction markets now put the odds of a Xi visit before 2027 at 92.5%.
The diplomatic conversation
Rubio and Wang spoke by phone, with the topic of a potential Xi visit to the U.S. on the agenda. The call was part of ongoing high-level contacts between the two countries, though neither side has confirmed a specific date or itinerary. The discussion signals that both governments are at least exploring the idea of a face-to-face meeting between the two leaders.
Such a visit would be Xi’s first to the United States since 2017, when he met then-President Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago. The Biden administration has not yet issued a formal invitation, but the diplomatic groundwork appears to be underway.
What the prediction market says
Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform, shows a 92.5% probability that Xi will visit the U.S. before the end of 2027. The market has been active for months, with the odds climbing steadily after a series of bilateral meetings between U.S. and Chinese officials. The high figure suggests traders see the visit as nearly certain within that timeframe.
Prediction markets are not always accurate, but they aggregate the views of many participants. A 92.5% probability is unusually high for a geopolitical event of this scale, indicating strong confidence among bettors.
The White House has not publicly commented on the prediction market data. A State Department official said only that the U.S. remains open to high-level engagements with China when conditions are appropriate.
What’s at stake
A Xi visit would be a major diplomatic event, likely covering trade, technology, climate, and military tensions. The two countries have been locked in a series of disputes over tariffs, semiconductor exports, and Taiwan. A face-to-face meeting could help manage those conflicts, though no breakthroughs are guaranteed.
For the Biden administration, hosting Xi would be a chance to demonstrate that the U.S. can manage competition with China without descending into confrontation. For Beijing, a visit would signal that China remains engaged with the world despite its economic slowdown and domestic challenges.
No date has been set. The next step is likely a formal invitation from the White House, followed by negotiations on timing and agenda. Until then, the prediction market will keep ticking.
