A Russian attack has knocked out power in parts of northern Ukraine. Separately, a prediction market is pricing in a 15% chance that Russian forces will enter the city of Sloviansk by the end of 2026.
Power outages hit northern region
The attack targeted energy infrastructure, leaving thousands without electricity. The extent of the outages is not yet clear, but reports indicate that several districts in northern Ukraine are affected. Emergency crews are working to restore power, though no timeline has been given.
Prediction market odds on Sloviansk
A prediction market, which allows users to bet on the outcome of future events, currently shows a 15% probability that Russia will enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026. Sloviansk is a city in eastern Ukraine, not far from the current front lines. The market's odds have fluctuated in recent weeks as the conflict evolves.
What the numbers mean
The 15% figure is not a forecast from analysts or officials. It reflects the collective judgment of traders who have put money on the line. Such markets are often used to gauge sentiment around geopolitical events, but they are not always accurate. The probability could shift quickly as new information emerges.
The power outages in northern Ukraine are a separate development, but they underscore the ongoing impact of the war on civilian infrastructure. The attack that caused the outages has not been linked directly to Sloviansk, but it is part of the broader pattern of strikes across the country.
The prediction market will continue to update as events unfold. For now, residents in northern Ukraine are dealing with the immediate consequences of the blackout.
