Russian forces launched guided bomb attacks on Sumy and Kherson and a drone attack on Izyum, according to reports. The strikes hit civilian areas in the three cities, though casualty figures were not immediately available. Separately, a prediction market now puts a 21% probability that Russian troops will enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026.
The latest strikes
The guided bomb attacks on Sumy and Kherson mark a continuation of Russia's aerial campaign against Ukrainian cities. In Izyum, a drone strike targeted the city, which has seen heavy fighting in the past. The attacks come as both sides prepare for possible offensives in the spring.
What the prediction market shows
A prediction market that tracks geopolitical events has assigned a 21% chance to Russian forces entering Sloviansk by the end of 2026. Sloviansk, a city in Donetsk Oblast, has been a focal point of the conflict since 2014. The market's odds suggest that while a Russian advance into the city is not the baseline scenario, it is a distinct possibility over the next two and a half years.
Prediction markets aggregate bets from participants who buy and sell contracts based on outcomes. The 21% figure implies that the market sees roughly a one-in-five chance of Russian entry into Sloviansk by the deadline. Such markets have been used to forecast election results, economic events, and military conflicts.
Why Sloviansk matters
Sloviansk sits near the front line in eastern Ukraine and has been under Ukrainian control since 2014, when Russian-backed separatists briefly held the city. Its capture would give Russian forces a strategic foothold in Donetsk Oblast and potentially open a path toward the regional capital, Kramatorsk. The prediction market's probability reflects the uncertainty around future Russian operations in the area.
The 21% probability for Sloviansk by December 31, 2026, is a snapshot of current market sentiment. As the war evolves, those odds will shift.
