Saudi warplanes hit targets in the Yemeni port city of Hudaydah late Tuesday, hours after a vessel came under attack in the Red Sea. The strikes mark the latest escalation in a conflict that has drawn in regional powers and threatened one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes.
Why the strikes were launched
The Saudi-led coalition said it carried out the operation in response to what it called a “hostile act” against a commercial ship in the Red Sea. No group immediately claimed responsibility for the vessel attack, but the Houthi movement, which controls much of northern Yemen including Hudaydah, has regularly targeted ships it says are linked to Israel or its allies. The coalition did not specify which vessel was hit or whether there were casualties.
Houthi warning
Hours after the Saudi strikes, a Houthi spokesperson warned that the group would escalate its operations. “The aggression will not go unanswered,” the spokesperson said in a statement carried by the group’s Al-Masirah TV. “Our forces are ready to respond at the time and place of our choosing.” The warning raises the possibility of further attacks on Red Sea shipping, which has already seen a surge in incidents since late 2023.
The growing threat to the Bab el-Mandeb
The narrow Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, is a critical chokepoint for global oil and cargo shipments. According to data from the prediction market Polymarket, traders now see a 23.5% chance that the strait will be effectively closed by September 30. That figure has risen sharply in recent weeks as Houthi attacks have intensified and drawn retaliatory strikes from the U.S., U.K., and now Saudi Arabia.
Even a partial closure would force ships to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, adding weeks to transit times and driving up shipping costs. The International Monetary Fund has warned that disruptions in the Red Sea could fuel inflation and delay deliveries of food and fuel to East Africa and the Middle East.
What’s next
Saudi Arabia has not announced whether it plans additional strikes. The Houthis, meanwhile, have shown no willingness to de-escalate. The next flashpoint could come if the group follows through on its threat to target more vessels — or if the coalition decides to broaden its campaign beyond Hudaydah. For now, shipping companies are watching the strait, and the prediction markets, closely.
