Polymarket's "Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?" market has climbed to roughly 68% as of Aug. 24, with cumulative volume of about $94,463 since March 19. A separate contract for impeachment before Dec. 31, 2026 trades at just 2%. That 33x spread isn't a sign of a shift in how traders feel about the president — it's a reflection of the congressional calendar.
Why the Two Contracts Are So Far Apart
The longer contract runs until the end of the term, which takes it past the 2026 midterms. The shorter contract is stuck in the current Congress, where Republicans hold narrow majorities in both chambers. That makes an impeachment vote before the end of 2026 unlikely, which is why the 2% number is so low.
Forecasters have already started weighing in on the House. Kalshi puts Democrats at 85% to take the House; Polymarket has them at 87%. Those numbers aren't just about control of the chamber — they're the foundation of the 68% impeachment price.
A Compounded Bet
The 68% isn't a straight bet on impeachment. It's a two-step wager: the probability that Democrats win the House times the probability that a Democratic majority actually brings articles to a vote. If Democrats take the chamber, they gain subpoena power, Judiciary Committee control, and the ability to schedule floor votes on impeachment. Without that control, the number would be far lower.
The Congressional Research Service notes that the House has impeached three presidents — Andrew Johnson, Bill Clinton, and Donald Trump — and the Senate never convicted any. But each of those proceedings happened with a House controlled by the opposing party. That's the condition the market appears to be pricing for the term-end contract.
The 2% Contract Isn't About Sentiment
The Dec. 31, 2026 contract sits at 2% because it covers a period when the current Republican majority is still in place. The odds of a Republican-led House voting to impeach the sitting president are effectively zero in this market. The 68% contract, by contrast, looks past that calendar to a future when the House could be under different control.
The Same Dynamic in Shutdown Odds
Kalshi's government shutdown odds market showed a similar procedural pattern. The probability of a shutdown moved not just on policy but on where the shutdown deadline fell relative to the congressional session. The market's pricing was about the calendar, not the political will.
That's exactly what's happening here. The two Polymarket contracts are asking different questions about the same event. The 68% number is a bet on the 2026 election; the 2% number is a bet on the current Congress. Which one turns out to be right will be decided in November.
