Keir Starmer has warned Andy Burnham not to rush into a leadership contest, with the Makerfield by-election just weeks away. The warning came shortly after the Labour leader returned from the G7 summit in Japan. Starmer insists he will fight any challenge to his leadership, even as betting markets give the opposition a near-certain chance of losing the seat.
The G7 return and the warning
Starmer landed back in the UK and immediately turned his attention to internal party dynamics. He told Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor, that now is not the time for a rushed leadership bid. The message was blunt: focus on the by-election first, not on internal battles. Burnham has long been seen as a potential successor, but Starmer's camp wants to avoid a distraction ahead of a tough electoral test.
Makerfield by-election stakes
The by-election in Makerfield, a seat Labour has held comfortably for years, suddenly looks vulnerable. Polling shows the party's support eroding, partly due to internal divisions and a string of unpopular policy reversals. The Conservatives have been gaining ground, and local activists worry the seat could flip. A loss would put Starmer under even more pressure, making a leadership challenge more likely — but that's exactly why he wants Burnham to hold off.
Polymarket odds point to defeat
Polymarket, a prediction market platform, prices the candidate Shepherd's loss at 99.5%. That means bettors see a Labour defeat as almost certain. While prediction markets aren't always accurate, the near-100% figure reflects deep pessimism about the party's chances. Some Labour insiders privately admit the seat is slipping away, though publicly they insist they're still fighting.
Starmer digs in
Despite the odds, Starmer has made clear he won't step aside. He told allies he intends to lead the party into the next election and will confront any challenger head-on. His team is already preparing a campaign to shore up support among MPs and party members. The question is whether that will be enough to fend off Burnham or another would-be leader if the by-election result is as bad as predicted.
The by-election is expected within weeks. Until then, both Starmer and Burnham will have to tread carefully — one trying to save his job, the other deciding whether to make a move.
