Rep. Bryan Steil plans to tack a ban on lawmakers and their families betting on political and policy prediction markets onto a pending House stock-trading bill. The Wisconsin Republican's move would close a loophole that currently allows members of Congress to wager on outcomes they may help shape.
What the new restriction covers
The proposed ban targets prediction markets—platforms where users bet on events like election results or policy decisions. Under the amendment, sitting lawmakers, their spouses, and dependent children would be barred from placing any such bets. Steil's office confirmed the addition to the broader stock-trading bill, which already limits securities trades by members.
The underlying legislation, known as the STOCK Act overhaul, has stalled in the House. Steil's amendment is meant to address growing criticism over Congress members profiting from non-public information—now extended to political wagers.
Why prediction markets are in the crosshairs
Platforms like Polymarket have drawn scrutiny for allowing bets on everything from presidential races to Supreme Court rulings. Lawmakers worry that insiders could exploit their knowledge of upcoming bills or agency actions. The ban would apply regardless of whether the market is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission or operates offshore.
Critics have pointed to recent high-profile bets on political events as proof the system needs guardrails. Steil's amendment doesn't single out any specific platform, but the language is broad enough to cover all contract-based political betting.
The Newsom number on Polymarket
Meanwhile, on the prediction market Polymarket, California Governor Gavin Newsom's odds stood at 23.85% for an unspecified political outcome as of the proposal's announcement. The figure highlights how such markets assign percentages to political figures—something the ban seeks to prevent lawmakers from leveraging.
It's unclear which event the Newsom contract refers to; Polymarket lists dozens of bets on gubernatorial races, presidential primaries, and even impeachment votes. The platform did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
What happens next
The stock-trading bill, including Steil's amendment, is expected to face a House floor vote later this year. If passed, the betting ban would take effect 90 days after enactment. The Senate would still need to approve its own version.
Steil's office said the goal is to ensure Congress can't use its position for financial gain—whether in stocks or on prediction markets. Whether the ban will survive opposition from civil liberties groups and market advocates remains the open question.
