Former President Donald Trump has assured Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that he will not face arrest in the United States, even as an International Criminal Court warrant remains active. The guarantee, which Trump issued directly to Netanyahu, comes amid growing speculation about a possible face-to-face meeting between the two leaders.
Assurance delivered directly
Trump made the pledge without specifying the legal basis for blocking an ICC arrest request. The ICC warrant, issued by the court's prosecutor, has not been publicly detailed by either leader. But the former president's message was clear: Netanyahu would be safe on US soil regardless of the ICC's actions.
The United States is not a party to the Rome Statute that created the ICC, and Washington has long rejected the court's jurisdiction over American or Israeli citizens. Still, the warrant creates a legal wrinkle: under international law, ICC member states are obligated to arrest individuals subject to a warrant if they enter their territory. The US is not bound by that obligation, but the political optics of hosting a leader with an active ICC warrant are delicate.
Prediction market sees a meeting
A prediction market is now pricing in a 60.5% probability that Trump and Netanyahu will meet in person by July 31, 2026. That's a bet on a reunion between two leaders who have maintained a close relationship since Trump's first term, when he recognized Jerusalem as Israel's capital and moved the US embassy there.
The market's odds suggest traders see a meeting as more likely than not, but not a sure thing. The date — July 31, 2026 — is far enough out that it could cover either a Trump campaign event, a potential second term, or a private visit. It's also possible Netanyahu's political future in Israel could shift the timeline.
Neither Trump nor Netanyahu has publicly confirmed a meeting. But the prediction market's probability has ticked up since Trump's assurance, signaling that the arrest warrant had been a perceived obstacle to a face-to-face.
The ICC warrant's long shadow
The ICC warrant against Netanyahu is part of a broader investigation into alleged war crimes in the Palestinian territories. Israel has fiercely contested the court's jurisdiction, and the US has backed that position. Trump's guarantee reinforces that stance: no Israeli prime minister will be arrested in the US, warrant or not.
It's not clear how the ICC would respond if Netanyahu traveled to the US and the US declined to act. The court has no enforcement mechanism on non-member states. But the warrant could complicate travel to ICC member countries, which include many European allies.
For now, the assurance removes one hurdle. The next question is when — and where — the two men will sit down together.
