President Donald Trump has demanded that Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey sign onto the Abraham Accords as part of ongoing negotiations for a new Iran nuclear deal, according to people familiar with the discussions. The move ties two major Middle East diplomatic tracks together as prediction markets show a sharp jump in the odds of a US-Iran agreement by early June.
The Abraham Accords Link
Trump's demand effectively makes the expansion of the Abraham Accords a precondition for any deal with Tehran. The accords, brokered during his first term, normalized relations between Israel and several Arab states. Adding Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey would dramatically reshape regional dynamics—but it also introduces a new layer of complexity to already delicate talks. Negotiators have not publicly confirmed the demand, but multiple sources close to the process describe it as a firm White House position.
Deal Odds Shift Sharply
Market-based prediction models now put the probability of a US-Iran deal by May 26 at just 15%. That figure climbs to 63.5% for a deal by June 7. The rapid shift suggests traders are betting that negotiations will intensify in the coming weeks, possibly with a breakthrough before summer. The gap between the two dates reflects uncertainty about whether Trump's Abraham Accords demand will slow or accelerate the process.
What's at Stake for the Gulf
Saudi Arabia and Qatar have both maintained cautious public stances on the Abraham Accords. Saudi officials have said normalization with Israel depends on progress toward a Palestinian state. Qatar, which hosts a major US military base and has its own ties with Iran, faces a delicate balancing act. Turkey, a NATO member, has historically been critical of Israeli policy and has not signaled willingness to join. Trump's insistence could force these countries to choose between deeper US alignment and their own strategic interests.
The Countdown to May 26
With the first probability deadline less than two weeks away, talks are expected to accelerate. A deal by May 26 would require rapid concessions on all sides. If that window closes, the focus shifts to June 7—a date that now carries significantly higher odds. The unresolved question is whether Trump's linkage will be the key that unlocks a broader regional realignment or the obstacle that stalls a nuclear agreement.
