President Donald Trump announced at the G7 summit in Evian on June 17 that the United States has reached an accord with Iran and expects it to be signed shortly, possibly as soon as Thursday or Friday. The statement came during a press conference at the annual Group of Seven meeting in France. Within hours, Polymarket's knockout-advance odds for the Iran accord hit 99.4 percent, reflecting near-certainty among traders that a deal would be finalized.
What Trump said at the G7
Trump told reporters that the U.S. had completed negotiations on an accord with Iran and that a signing was imminent. He suggested the signing could happen Thursday or Friday, though he did not specify which officials would sign or where the ceremony would take place. The remarks were brief and did not include details on the accord's terms or scope. No other U.S. officials elaborated on the president's statement.
Polymarket odds spike to near-certainty
On the prediction market Polymarket, the knockout-advance odds for the Iran accord surged to 99.4 percent shortly after Trump's announcement. The contract — which pays out if the accord is signed and advances past a knockout stage — had traded at lower probabilities in recent weeks. The sudden jump suggests traders viewed Trump's statement as a strong signal that the deal was effectively done. Polymarket's odds are based on user bets, not official forecasts.
What happens next
The timeline for signing remains unclear beyond Trump's mention of Thursday or Friday. No confirmation has come from Iranian officials or other parties to the negotiations. The G7 summit in Evian continues through the week, and Trump is scheduled to hold additional bilateral meetings. Whether the signing will occur in France or elsewhere has not been disclosed.
