President Donald Trump announced that the United States will approve a civilian nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia only if the kingdom joins the Abraham Accords, the normalization agreements between Israel and several Arab nations. The statement, made without further detail, links nuclear cooperation to broader Middle East diplomacy.
The condition for cooperation
Trump's announcement ties a potential Saudi nuclear program to the Abraham Accords, which were brokered during his first term. The accords normalized relations between Israel and countries like the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan. Saudi Arabia has not yet signed on, and the new condition suggests Washington wants Riyadh to formally recognize Israel before receiving nuclear assistance.
The deal would involve US help in developing civilian nuclear energy in Saudi Arabia, a prospect that has drawn scrutiny from nonproliferation advocates. Critics worry that any nuclear program in the region could eventually lead to weapons development, especially given Saudi Arabia's past statements about matching any Iranian nuclear capability.
Market odds on an Iran deal
Meanwhile, prediction markets show low expectations for a separate US-Iran nuclear agreement. A market on the platform Polymarket currently gives a 2.9% probability that a final deal between Washington and Tehran will be reached by August 13, 2026. The low odds reflect ongoing tensions and stalled negotiations over Iran's nuclear program.
The two issues are not directly linked in Trump's statement, but they both involve nuclear diplomacy in the Middle East. The Saudi deal would be a bilateral US-Saudi arrangement, while the Iran deal would be a multilateral agreement to limit Tehran's nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief.
It remains unclear whether Saudi Arabia will accept the Abraham Accords condition. The kingdom has previously signaled openness to normalization with Israel but has also insisted on progress toward a Palestinian state. Trump's announcement did not specify what form the nuclear deal would take or how it would be structured.
