President Donald Trump has voided the existing ceasefire with Iran and ordered air strikes against the country, according to official statements. The move marks a sharp reversal from earlier diplomatic efforts and has immediately escalated tensions in the Middle East.
Ceasefire abandoned
The ceasefire, which had been in place for several months, was terminated without prior warning. The White House did not provide a detailed explanation for the decision, but the air strikes began shortly after the announcement. Military officials confirmed that targets inside Iran were hit, though they declined to specify the locations or the extent of damage.
Iran has not yet issued a formal response. The country's foreign ministry said it was assessing the situation. No casualties have been reported so far.
Prediction market sees dim prospects for a deal
On prediction markets, the odds of a US-Iran deal that includes reconstruction funding by 2026 now stand at just 26% YES. That figure reflects a sharp drop from earlier this year, when the ceasefire raised hopes for a broader agreement. The low probability suggests traders see little chance of a negotiated settlement in the near term, especially after the air strikes.
Reconstruction funding had been a key component of the proposed deal, aimed at rebuilding infrastructure damaged during years of conflict. Without a ceasefire, that plan is effectively on hold.
What comes next
The air strikes raise immediate questions about Iran's next steps. The country could retaliate directly or through proxy forces in the region. The US has put its military in the region on heightened alert. No timeline has been given for further diplomatic talks. The prediction market will update as new information emerges, but for now, the 26% figure is the only concrete signal of where things stand.
