Just 34 percent of U.S. voters approve of Donald Trump's job performance with three weeks to go before the midterm elections, according to a Financial Times/Focaldata poll of 2,275 registered voters conducted online from October 2 to 4.
The numbers on the economy are worse. About one-fifth of voters approve of how Trump is handling inflation. More than two-thirds say the economy is heading in the wrong direction, and only a quarter back his handling of jobs and the economy.
Those figures land against a backdrop of weakening jobs data and stubbornly high energy costs. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 29,000 new jobs for September and cut its July and August estimates by a combined 60,000. The Consumer Price Index rose 3.4 percent in the 12 months to August. Energy costs climbed 16.3 percent over the same period, and gasoline jumped 27.4 percent.
Energy has carried most of the inflation impact since Trump launched the Iran war on February 28. Diesel prices topped $6 for the first time last month, and Trump has weighed curbs on diesel exports to cool prices. His approval on handling the Iran conflict has slipped more than 7 points since May.
The betting markets have already moved
Polymarket gives Democrats a 91 percent chance of taking the House, on $16.4 million in volume. The Senate contract sits at 64 percent for Democrats, up 19 points since the market opened in July 2025. Democrats overtook Republicans in that market in August.
A separate Polymarket balance-of-power contract prices a Democratic sweep of both chambers at 62 percent and a Republican sweep at 9 percent, on total volume of $22.2 million.
The Cook Political Report has shifted 18 House races toward Democrats and projects a Democratic gain of 9 to 19 seats.
Forty-five percent of voters believe Trump is making it harder for Republican candidates to win.
A crack in Trump's own coalition
Under 70 percent of Trump's 2024 voters now approve of him, down from 80 percent in May. That's a notable erosion inside his base. But 80 percent of those same voters still plan to back their district's Republican candidate. Disapproval of Trump and abandonment of the party are not the same thing.
Trump has repeated his $5,000 'Trump Dividend' promise if Republicans win. It's a pitch aimed squarely at the voters who have drifted from him on approval but haven't yet drifted from the ballot.
What the next three weeks look like
The BLS publishes September inflation data on October 14, less than three weeks before Election Day. October figures follow on November 10 — after the vote. That leaves the September report as the last CPI reading voters will see before they cast ballots.
If energy prices remain the story, the September print will tell voters whether the diesel spike and gasoline costs are easing or hardening. Trump's export-curb threat on diesel is still just that — a threat — and no policy has been finalized.
The FT/Focaldata poll carries a margin of error that has not been disclosed in the available figures. The survey was conducted online among registered voters, a method that can skew toward more politically engaged respondents.
The next hard data point arrives October 14. Everything after that is the election itself.
