A new poll finds 65% of U.S. adults disapprove of President Donald Trump’s handling of Iran, while his overall approval rating remains stuck at 37%. The AP-NORC survey, conducted June 11-17, shows no movement in Trump’s approval since May. Meanwhile, betting markets are already looking past the current administration: Polymarket odds now put Senator J.D. Vance as the leading candidate for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination.
Iran disapproval deepens
The 65% disapproval figure on Iran comes amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East. The poll did not break down responses by party, but the number is notably high — almost two-thirds of adults giving the president a failing grade on that specific issue. Trump’s handling of Iran has been a flashpoint since he withdrew from the nuclear deal in 2018 and reimposed sanctions. The latest survey captures public sentiment just weeks after the administration conducted airstrikes against Iranian-backed militia groups in Iraq and Syria.
Approval stuck at 37%
Trump’s overall approval rating, at 37%, hasn’t budged since May. That puts him in a weak spot historically for a first-term president at this point in the calendar. The AP-NORC poll, which surveys a representative sample of U.S. adults, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The lack of change suggests the president’s base is holding firm, but he isn’t picking up new support — a problem heading into the final stretch of his term.
Vance emerges as 2028 favorite
On the prediction market Polymarket, odds now show Senator J.D. Vance of Ohio as the frontrunner for the 2028 Republican nomination. Vance, who rose to prominence with his memoir “Hillbilly Elegy” and won a Senate seat in 2022, has been a vocal ally of Trump. The betting odds reflect early speculation, not actual voter intentions, but they signal which names are gaining traction among political gamblers. Other potential contenders like Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former Vice President Mike Pence trail in the current odds.
The combination of weak approval numbers and early jockeying for the next election cycle paints a picture of a president struggling to broaden his appeal while his party’s future begins to take shape. The next major test for Trump’s Iran policy — and his approval — could come if Congress takes up new sanctions legislation or if tensions escalate further.
