Ukraine hit a Russian refinery and several oil tankers in the Black Sea in a coordinated attack, according to reports. The strikes are the latest in a series of Ukrainian operations targeting Russian energy infrastructure as the war grinds on.
What was hit
The refinery, located in Russia's Krasnodar region, was struck by drones, while the tankers were attacked in the Black Sea near the Kerch Strait. Ukrainian officials have not confirmed the operation, but Russian authorities acknowledged damage to the refinery and said one tanker was disabled.
These attacks are part of a broader Ukrainian strategy to disrupt Russia's fuel supply and logistics. The refinery processes crude oil into diesel and gasoline used by Russian forces. The tankers were reportedly carrying fuel to Russian military units in occupied Crimea.
The Black Sea campaign
Ukraine has increasingly targeted Russian naval assets and oil infrastructure in the Black Sea. Earlier this year, Ukrainian sea drones sank a Russian warship and damaged a fuel depot in Novorossiysk. The latest strikes suggest Ukraine is trying to choke off Russia's ability to resupply its forces by sea.
Russia's Black Sea Fleet has been forced to relocate many vessels from its main base in Sevastopol to ports farther east, like Novorossiysk. But those ports are now within range of Ukrainian drones and missiles.
Sloviansk on the line
While the strikes grab headlines, a separate data point offers a glimpse into how the conflict might evolve. Prediction markets now give a 21% probability that Russian forces will enter the city of Sloviansk by December 31, 2026.
Sloviansk, in Ukraine's Donetsk region, has been a focal point of fighting since 2014. It fell to Russian-backed separatists early that year before being recaptured by Ukraine. If Russia were to take the city again, it would mark a significant setback for Kyiv.
The 21% figure is not a forecast but a market-based probability. It reflects the collective judgment of traders betting on the outcome. The odds have fluctuated as the war has evolved, and they remain relatively low — but not zero.
For now, the strikes on the refinery and tankers show Ukraine is still capable of hitting deep into Russian territory. The question is whether that will be enough to shift the momentum on the ground.
